Market Analysis

Last week the setup looked primed for a break lower. The dollar could win both ways, EUR/USD was carving a bear flag, and the levels were lined up for resolution. Then the resolution never came. Instead, the euro did something harder to trade than a trend: almost nothing. For two weeks now, EUR/USD has ground…

Last week we asked whether the euro’s bounce could turn into something more. The weekend answered for it. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated further, crude oil rebounded sharply mid-week, and EUR/USD surrendered its earlier composure by Friday’s close. Here is the uncomfortable arithmetic for euro bulls. In this environment, the dollar can win…

For most of the quarter, the trade was simple: long the dollar. The Fed carried a hiking bias, the CME FedWatch tool showed the market pricing at least one more 0.25% hike this year, and EUR/USD had bled from its January high near 1.2076 down toward 1.13. That was the priced-in story. Then Thursday happened.…

The dollar didn’t just hold its post-Fed gains last week. It pressed further, and EUR/USD slipped to a fresh low mid-week before finishing Friday near 1.1382. The move that began with the June FOMC decision is still running. Broad dollar buying has carried across the major pairs, and the euro has stayed on the back…

The Fed didn’t hike last week. The dollar rallied anyway, and EUR/USD slid to its lowest level in weeks. That gap, between a policy rate that didn’t move and a currency that did, is the story heading into this week. The decision itself was never the catalyst. The projections were. This week’s calendar is lighter…

Last week handed the yen a near-perfect window to strengthen. Crude oil tumbled on growing optimism around a US-Iran deal, dragging Treasury yields lower. Softer core US inflation reinforced the same message. By every causality chain that usually matters, USD/JPY should have fallen. It didn’t. The pair barely unwound, rebounding back above 160 by Friday’s…

Last Friday’s payrolls report did something that takes a lot to do: it genuinely surprised markets. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May — more than double the consensus estimate of 85,000 — while revisions added a further 93,000 jobs to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, near its lowest level…

Gold enters the first week of June carrying three consecutive monthly losses and a question that this week’s data may finally begin to answer: is the corrective phase over, or is the bounce simply borrowing time? After falling 11.5% in March, 1% in April, and 1.8% in May, gold briefly dipped below its 200-day moving…

Last week handed markets one of their most compressed reversals of the year. Three distinct macro forces — a rejected Iranian diplomatic offer, Kevin Warsh’s Fed confirmation, and a sudden peace breakthrough — each moved markets in a different direction across five sessions. By Friday’s close, oil had dropped approximately 7%. European equities led global…

Markets had one of their best weeks of the year. Then Friday happened. The S&P 500 breached 7,500. The Dow Jones briefly reclaimed 50,000. AI earnings momentum and a constructive Trump-Xi summit had risk appetite at a seasonal high. By Friday afternoon, most of those gains had been erased. The catalyst: Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation…