Market Analysis

Friday’s jobs report was the headline. The market’s reaction is the real story. Economists expected the US economy to add roughly 85,000 jobs in July. Instead, employers cut 23,000 positions. That is the kind of miss that should weaken the dollar and lift the euro. It did not. EUR/USD pushed briefly above its 200-day EMA…

EUR/USD dipped toward 1.1400 late last week. Buyers showed up again, the same response that has played out at this level for most of the year. That rebound is not the real story, though. The question underneath it is whether the market trusts this floor, or is simply hesitating above it. Traders have already priced…

On Friday, US yields eased. Normally, that lifts EUR/USD. Instead, the pair sold off into the close. That reaction is the real story. Last week the euro refused to break its range. This week it is pressing the floor of that range at 1.1400, and the bounces keep failing. So the question is no longer…

Last week the setup looked primed for a break lower. The dollar could win both ways, EUR/USD was carving a bear flag, and the levels were lined up for resolution. Then the resolution never came. Instead, the euro did something harder to trade than a trend: almost nothing. For two weeks now, EUR/USD has ground…

Last week we asked whether the euro’s bounce could turn into something more. The weekend answered for it. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated further, crude oil rebounded sharply mid-week, and EUR/USD surrendered its earlier composure by Friday’s close. Here is the uncomfortable arithmetic for euro bulls. In this environment, the dollar can win…

For most of the quarter, the trade was simple: long the dollar. The Fed carried a hiking bias, the CME FedWatch tool showed the market pricing at least one more 0.25% hike this year, and EUR/USD had bled from its January high near 1.2076 down toward 1.13. That was the priced-in story. Then Thursday happened.…

The dollar didn’t just hold its post-Fed gains last week. It pressed further, and EUR/USD slipped to a fresh low mid-week before finishing Friday near 1.1382. The move that began with the June FOMC decision is still running. Broad dollar buying has carried across the major pairs, and the euro has stayed on the back…

The Fed didn’t hike last week. The dollar rallied anyway, and EUR/USD slid to its lowest level in weeks. That gap, between a policy rate that didn’t move and a currency that did, is the story heading into this week. The decision itself was never the catalyst. The projections were. This week’s calendar is lighter…

Last week handed the yen a near-perfect window to strengthen. Crude oil tumbled on growing optimism around a US-Iran deal, dragging Treasury yields lower. Softer core US inflation reinforced the same message. By every causality chain that usually matters, USD/JPY should have fallen. It didn’t. The pair barely unwound, rebounding back above 160 by Friday’s…

Last Friday’s payrolls report did something that takes a lot to do: it genuinely surprised markets. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May — more than double the consensus estimate of 85,000 — while revisions added a further 93,000 jobs to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, near its lowest level…