Market Analysis

Last week handed the yen a near-perfect window to strengthen. Crude oil tumbled on growing optimism around a US-Iran deal, dragging Treasury yields lower. Softer core US inflation reinforced the same message. By every causality chain that usually matters, USD/JPY should have fallen. It didn’t. The pair barely unwound, rebounding back above 160 by Friday’s…

Last Friday’s payrolls report did something that takes a lot to do: it genuinely surprised markets. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May — more than double the consensus estimate of 85,000 — while revisions added a further 93,000 jobs to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, near its lowest level…

Gold enters the first week of June carrying three consecutive monthly losses and a question that this week’s data may finally begin to answer: is the corrective phase over, or is the bounce simply borrowing time? After falling 11.5% in March, 1% in April, and 1.8% in May, gold briefly dipped below its 200-day moving…

Last week handed markets one of their most compressed reversals of the year. Three distinct macro forces — a rejected Iranian diplomatic offer, Kevin Warsh’s Fed confirmation, and a sudden peace breakthrough — each moved markets in a different direction across five sessions. By Friday’s close, oil had dropped approximately 7%. European equities led global…

Markets had one of their best weeks of the year. Then Friday happened. The S&P 500 breached 7,500. The Dow Jones briefly reclaimed 50,000. AI earnings momentum and a constructive Trump-Xi summit had risk appetite at a seasonal high. By Friday afternoon, most of those gains had been erased. The catalyst: Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation…

The Federal Reserve changes leadership on Friday. Jerome Powell’s final act as Chair is Tuesday’s CPI print — and the Dollar’s technical structure is already leaning toward a verdict. That combination makes this an unusual week. It’s not just about what inflation prints. It’s about what a hotter or cooler reading means for the incoming…

Markets spent last week breaking records and waiting for permission to believe them. The Nasdaq and S&P closed at fresh all-time highs. The Magnificent 7 delivered record revenues. Five major central banks held without hiking, the Dollar fell sharply, and WTI Crude pushed back above $100. All of that is context. None of it is…

Five central bank decisions in four days. That alone makes this the most macro-intensive week of 2026. But it’s not just the volume — it’s the sequence. The Bank of Japan opens the week as the wildcard. Monday’s decision could send JPY pairs moving before the rest of the week even begins. Then Wednesday, the…

The peace rally is over. The Strait of Hormuz, which had briefly reopened and sent oil crashing nearly 10% in a single session on Friday, closed again on Saturday. The ceasefire that drove equities to fresh all-time highs expires on Wednesday, April 22. Without a formal extension or a signed deal, everything that was priced…

Peace talks collapsed in Islamabad after 21 hours. Trump announced a Hormuz blockade effective immediately. The ceasefire expires April 22, and neither side left Pakistan with a path forward. Markets had spent the back half of last week pricing in progress. WTI had already pulled back to $104.86 — down 3.12% on Friday — as…