Market Analysis

The Federal Reserve did not meet last week. It did not need to. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium moved markets more than most rate decisions do. For months, traders had priced in rate cuts starting in spring. Warsh’s comments cut against that story. He pointed to inflation still running above…

GBP/USD closed last week at its highest level since February. That headline reads like a Pound story. It isn’t. The real driver sat in the US bond market, not in London. The Treasury’s plan to expand long-dated bond buybacks pulled yields lower and dragged the Dollar down with it. Even a more hawkish set of…

Last week, EUR/USD tested 1.1600 and failed. This week, it is testing that same level again. But the technical picture looks different this time. The pair has broken above its 200-day EMA since the last attempt. That is a real shift, not just noise. Still, the driver behind it remains unresolved. Traders are still debating…

Friday’s jobs report was the headline. The market’s reaction is the real story. Economists expected the US economy to add roughly 85,000 jobs in July. Instead, employers cut 23,000 positions. That is the kind of miss that should weaken the dollar and lift the euro. It did not. EUR/USD pushed briefly above its 200-day EMA…

EUR/USD dipped toward 1.1400 late last week. Buyers showed up again, the same response that has played out at this level for most of the year. That rebound is not the real story, though. The question underneath it is whether the market trusts this floor, or is simply hesitating above it. Traders have already priced…

On Friday, US yields eased. Normally, that lifts EUR/USD. Instead, the pair sold off into the close. That reaction is the real story. Last week the euro refused to break its range. This week it is pressing the floor of that range at 1.1400, and the bounces keep failing. So the question is no longer…

Last week the setup looked primed for a break lower. The dollar could win both ways, EUR/USD was carving a bear flag, and the levels were lined up for resolution. Then the resolution never came. Instead, the euro did something harder to trade than a trend: almost nothing. For two weeks now, EUR/USD has ground…

Last week we asked whether the euro’s bounce could turn into something more. The weekend answered for it. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated further, crude oil rebounded sharply mid-week, and EUR/USD surrendered its earlier composure by Friday’s close. Here is the uncomfortable arithmetic for euro bulls. In this environment, the dollar can win…

For most of the quarter, the trade was simple: long the dollar. The Fed carried a hiking bias, the CME FedWatch tool showed the market pricing at least one more 0.25% hike this year, and EUR/USD had bled from its January high near 1.2076 down toward 1.13. That was the priced-in story. Then Thursday happened.…

The dollar didn’t just hold its post-Fed gains last week. It pressed further, and EUR/USD slipped to a fresh low mid-week before finishing Friday near 1.1382. The move that began with the June FOMC decision is still running. Broad dollar buying has carried across the major pairs, and the euro has stayed on the back…